West Texas Intermediate rose from a two-month low to settle above $63 a barrel in thin summer trading.

Investors are watching for a signs that Friday’s summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will result in an easing or tightening of Washington’s sanctions on the OPEC+ member. Trump warned he would impose “very severe consequences” if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire, following a call with European leaders.

The markets are largely in “wait-and-see mode,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Consensus is that we won’t see a definitive ceasefire or aggressive sanctions from Trump.”

On the supply side, the picture is increasing bearish. Oil has lost more than 10% this year as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners complete the reversal of output curbs started in 2023, though price moves have been limited in recent days as trading activity eases over the summer months in the northern hemisphere. Expectations for a record supply glut next year are also weighing on the market.

Supplies are already “primed to back up in the Atlantic Basin,” RBC analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a note, adding that “crude oil balances for the rest of the year are weaker” than a year prior.

Oil Prices